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BMC Public Health

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match BMC Public Health's content profile, based on 147 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.19% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Meningitis vaccination campaign in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon

Mbang, M. A.; Cheuyem, F. Z. L.; Tchamani, R.; Debnet, J.; Ebongo, Z. N.; Fouda, A. A. B.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354702 medRxiv
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Objective: The study aimed to describe the challenges, best practices, and lessons learned during meningitis vaccination campaigns conducted in the context of COVID-19 in Cameroon in 2020. Results: During the prevention campaigns, 3,460 individuals were selected. All were tested before the campaign (100%). Eight cases were positive, representing a positivity rate of 0.23% (8/3,460). The campaign was carried out using a fixed strategy in health facilities and prisons and a fixed-temporary strategy in communities. Most health areas received sufficient quantities of COVID-19 equipment for some items and insufficient quantities for others. No screening was done during or after the campaign. The main difficulties encountered were compliance with social distancing and the continuous wearing of gowns. The challenges faced were the screening of actors and the use of personal protective equipment. Lessons learned: aspects related to COVID-19 impacted the speed of the campaign. Vaccination coverage ranged from 91% to 140% in prisons on the one hand, and from 35% to 112% in the health areas surrounding prisons on the other. The campaign in the context of COVID-19 was effective. Compliance with barrier measures was not optimal due to difficulties encountered with aspects such as social distancing, continuous wearing of gowns, screening of participants during and after the campaign, and insufficient personal protective equipment.

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Elevating the patient perspective: Qualitative evaluation of non-U.S. born care navigation on latent tuberculosis infection screening and treatment adherence

Ramzy, L. M.; Rahman, M.; Luque, M. O.; Rodrigues, K. K.; Belknap, R.; Venci, J. A.; Francis, B.; Ruckard, B. J.; Moran-Ibarra, W.; Rasulo, R. M.; Matadi, A.; Ramirez, M. G.; Thee, P. S.; McFeron, H. D.; Monson, S. P.; For the Tuberculosis Epidemiologic Studies Consortium,

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354954 medRxiv
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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the barriers and facilitators experienced by non-U.S. born persons during the diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in primary care settings, including the impact of culturally and linguistically congruent care navigation. Design: 25 interviews with non-U.S. born patients, along with focus groups and surveys with 31 primary care team members and leadership, were conducted. Setting: The study was conducted within a network of Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) clinics. Participants: Participants were adult non-U.S. born patients with LTBI and FQHC care team members. A purposefully selected subsample of randomized participants was interviewed. Intervention: Care navigators followed participants randomized to receive care navigation after a positive test for tuberculosis (TB) infection and offered health navigation and education about the importance of TB screening and treatment. Method: Data collection was followed by thematic analysis guided by a critical ideological paradigm. Results: Culturally and linguistically congruent navigation emerged as central to potentially reducing barriers, fostering trust, and improving treatment continuity. Participants without navigation support reported confusion and disengagement from care, while those with culturally aligned navigators described clarity and comfort, with influence overall by intrinsic motivation, relational support, and culturally shaped beliefs about care. Conclusion: Care navigation that includes culturally and linguistically congruent navigators whenever possible may help increase LTBI treatment completion among non-U.S. born populations. Limitations of the study include the potential influence of cultural norms, power dynamics, and selection bias.

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Estimating Infectious Disease Importation Risk during the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Herrera-Diestra, J. L.; Bi, K.; Ptak, S.; Ertem, Z.; Al-amery, A.; Harris, M.; Meyers, L. A.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354828 medRxiv
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Background. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will bring an estimated 1--5~million international visitors to 11~US host cities between June~11 and July~19, 2026---the largest tournament in history. Large-scale international gatherings accelerate importation of infectious diseases from diverse source populations. Advance estimation of importation risk is essential for public health preparedness and surveillance prioritization. Methods. We developed a Poisson importation framework applied to five diseases (dengue fever, influenza, malaria, measles, and pertussis) across the 11~US venue cities. Three nested travel models of increasing resolution were constructed: a baseline model using routine June~2024 arrival data; a World Cup--adjusted model incorporating projected visitor growth factors; and a schedule-driven model routing WC fans to specific cities based on match assignments. WHO incidence and BTS T-100 routing fractions were combined with Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (5,000 Uniform draws on under-reporting and travel-while-infectious parameters) to yield median importation estimates with 95\% uncertainty intervals. Results. Dengue posed the highest importation risk at most venue cities under the schedule-driven model (median $\Lambda > 10$ expected importations from Brazil alone; 95\% uncertainty interval 5.9--33.1), robust across the full literature-supported parameter range; Atlanta was the exception, where malaria probability exceeded dengue, driven by direct travel from West and Central African nations. Influenza ranked second at most cities, coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere winter peak. Pertussis showed broad geographic spread but carries the widest relative uncertainty, as the assumed detection rate sits at the upper bound of the literature range. Background tourism accounted for the dominant share of total importation risk; the World Cup fan increment contributed approximately 8.3\% of projected arrivals for WC-qualified nations. Conclusions. This Poisson importation framework, built entirely from publicly available data, provides reproducible importation risk estimates for mass gathering events. The framework extends to additional diseases, cities, and gatherings, offering a transparent baseline complementary to proprietary modeling systems.

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Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

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Increasing influenza vaccination rates among care home staff: Economic evaluation of the FluCare intervention within a cluster-RCT

Wagner, A. P.; Risebro, H.; Clark, A.; Stirling, S.; Sims, E.; Bion, V.; Blacklock, J.; Birt, L.; Bryant, R.; Cook, L.; Dean, T.; Wyn Griffiths, A.; Guillard, C.; Holland, R.; Jones, A. P.; Jones, L.; Katangwe-Chigamba, T.; Pitcher, J.; Scott, S.; Wright, D.; Patel, A.

2026-06-09 health economics 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355050 medRxiv
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Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

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Gendered pathways to adolescent mental health: An empirical assessment of a new conceptual framework

Alaze, A.; Hagen, D.; Schamberger, T.; Razum, O.; Miani, C.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355310 medRxiv
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Introduction Gender norms and roles are important determinants of physical and mental health in the key period of adolescence. Yet, the gendered pathways to mental health in adolescents are not fully understood. Using a conceptual framework for global adolescent mental health that we developed based on a Delphi process, we empirically investigated the associations between six gender-related constructs and adolescent mental health. Methods We used cross-sectional Gender and Adolescence: Global Evidence (GAGE) data from Ethiopia (2020) to explore the associations between sex, gender norms, psychological competencies, gender attitudes, gender roles, with the latter two also serving as mediators, and psychological distress (GHQ-12), using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Results The SEM model contained measurements from 1,584 adolescents, including 843 girls and 741 boys, with a median age of 13 years. Out of 14 pathways tested, we found statistically significant associations between psychological competencies and psychological distress; sex and gender attitudes; and between gender norms and psychological competencies, gender attitudes, and gender roles. Hence, the gender-related constructs were mostly associated with each other, rather than with psychological distress. Conclusion The gender-related constructs are strongly interrelated, thereby attenuating their individual effects on psychological distress. The interplay of gender-related constructs should be considered when developing interventions to promote mental health in adolescents.

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Arts and Cultural Engagement and Multidimensional Well-being in Later Life

Noguchi, T.; Erhua, S.; Hayashi, T.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354582 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: Arts and cultural engagement may contribute to well-being in later life. However, evidence from longitudinal studies from Asia, including Japan, remains limited. This study examined the association of arts and cultural engagement with subsequent multidimensional well-being among older adults in Japan, one of the fastest-aging countries. Research Design and Methods: This longitudinal study used panel data from 354 individuals aged 60 and older (mean age 74.0 years; 78.6% women) who completed self-administered questionnaires by mail between 2022 and 2024. The PERMA-Profiler was used to assess five multifaceted aspects of psychological well-being: positive emotion, engagement, relationships, meaning, and accomplishment. Frequencies of arts and cultural engagement at baseline were measured for active (e.g., activities by individuals and participation in groups, such as music and painting) and receptive (e.g., visiting museums, galleries, and theaters) forms. Results: Multivariable linear regression analysis, adjusted for the covariates including baseline PERMA scores, showed that higher frequencies of active engagement were positively associated with higher PERMA scores for all domains. Higher frequencies of receptive engagement were associated with the domains of positive emotion, meaning, and accomplishment, but not clearly associated with engagement and relationships. Restricted cubic spline analyses suggested clearer positive frequency-response patterns for active engagement than for receptive engagement. Discussion and Implications: Arts and cultural engagement, both active and receptive forms, was associated with subsequent multiple aspects of well-being in later life. These findings suggest the importance of ensuring access to arts and cultural opportunities for older adults to create, participate, and connect.

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A wealth index based on two-component polychoric principal component analysis reduces urban bias and improves socioeconomic classification in low- and middle-income country surveys: a validation study using LSMS surveys

Vidaletti, L. P.; Dos Santos, A. M.; Hellwig, F.; Barros, A. J. D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354245 medRxiv
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Background: The traditional wealth index, based on principal component analysis (PCA), used in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), suffers from urban bias, distorting estimates of health inequality. We compared the traditional index (PEAR1) with an alternative two-component polychoric PCA index (POLY2) using annual expenditure from 12 LSMS surveys as the gold standard to determine which provides more accurate SEP measures for equitable policy targeting. Methods: We compared the traditional wealth index (PEAR1) with a two-component polychoric PCA approach (POLY2) using 12 LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study) surveys (2015-2022) from 12 African countries. Annual household consumption expenditure was the gold standard. We assessed agreement using weighted Cohen's kappa and validated against education (proportion of households with secondary or higher education) using the concentration index (CIX) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results: The POLY2 index showed higher agreement with expenditure quintiles (average national weighted kappa = 43.3%) than the PEAR1 index (35.1%), with notable improvements in urban (43.5% vs. 27.5%) and rural (35.3% vs. 22.4%) areas. POLY2 also attenuated extreme household distributions observed in PEAR1. Education validation showed that POLY2 produced intermediate inequality gradients between the flatter expenditure-based gradient and the steeper PEAR1-based gradient. Conclusion: The POLY2 wealth index is superior to the traditional index, reducing urban-rural bias and providing more accurate socioeconomic classifications. Its adoption in large-scale surveys such as DHS and MICS is recommended to improve equitable monitoring of health inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.

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Healthy Heart Actions Right Time (HHART): Co-design priorities to connect Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community and clinic activities for healthy hearts

Wyber, R.; Zagler, J.; Liu, C.; Yadav, U. N.; O'Dwyer, Z.; Hart, K.; Chapman, K.; McGrady, L.; Kohn, A.; Winterfield, N.; Williams, D.; Watson, N.; Morey, K.; Pearson, O.

2026-06-10 primary care research 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354870 medRxiv
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Aim: Healthy Heart Actions Right Time (HHART) is a multi-phased research project that seeks to identify, implement and evaluate strategies to connect community and clinical activities to reduce the burden of heart disease for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. The aim in Phase One was to identify priority activities for two participating services. Background: The ongoing effects of colonisation drive a disproportionate burden of heart disease for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Clinical and community groups both have established strengths in reducing the risk of heart disease, but these are not always well connected. Methods: Using a case study methodology in two locations we partnered in a 12-month co-design process to identify priority activities to connect clinical and community activities. Findings: Three priorities emerged from the Phase One co-design process: (i) community-led gardening as a strategy to promote heart health through connection and healthy lifestyles; (ii) community days to increase engagement in heart checks and strengthen community-clinic relationship; and (iii) clinic-led development of culturally relevant education resources to promote clinician confidence and community heart health knowledge.

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Lung cancer pathway inequalities for adults with severe mental health conditions: A mixed-methods analysis of barriers to screening and care pathways in South East London

Tredget, G.; Milenova, M.; Parkash, R.; McGrath, R.; Edwards, M. J.; Gee, S.; Pigg, W.; Karwacki, D.; Costa, C.; Shafique, S.; Adams, M.; Waghorn, J.; I'Anson, D.; Ronaldson, A.; Haire, K.; Githuku, C.; Beveridge, E.; Williams, J.

2026-06-09 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355143 medRxiv
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Background: Adults with severe mental health conditions (often referred to as severe mental illness, SMI) experience 15 to 20 year mortality gap relative to the general population, with lung cancer a significant contributor. National cancer policy targets earlier diagnosis but does not explicitly address how pathways function for this group. Aims: This study aimed to describe lung cancer risk, prevalence, screening eligibility, referral activity and diagnostic pathway performance for adults with SMI in South East London (SEL), and to examine where along the pathway inequalities arise. Methods: Co-designed with experts with lived experience and voluntary sector, this exploratory mixed-methods service evaluation combined quantitative analysis of routinely collected data from the Quality Outcomes Framework (QOF), SMI Register and Cancer Waiting Times Record (April 2023-March 2024) with semi-structured qualitative interviews (n=11 clinical staff) and focus groups (n=6 adults with lived experience of SMI). Quantitative and qualitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and framework-based thematic analysis respectively, and findings were integrated using a joint display approach, organised by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). Results: Lung cancer prevalence was approximately double among adults with SMI (0.17% vs 0.09% in the general population). Despite Urgent Suspected Cancer (USC) referral rates being more than twice as high in the SMI population (63 vs 28 per 100,000), fewer cancers were detected via planned general practice (GP) routes (11% vs 20%), the 28-day Faster Diagnosis Standard was not met for any SMI patient diagnosed with lung cancer during the study period; overall FDS performance was 76% in the SMI population compared with 84% in the general population; and appointment non-attendance was more than double that in the general population (6% vs 3%). Qualitative findings identified individual, service and system-level mechanisms, including stigma, diagnostic overshadowing, fragmented coordination, and rigid pathway protocols, that compound disadvantage across lung cancer pathway stages. Conclusions: Inequality in lung cancer outcomes for adults with SMI accumulates across the pathway rather than arising at a single point of failure. Addressing this requires proportionate adaptations within existing cancer pathways, alongside routine reporting of cancer outcomes stratified by SMI population. Keywords: severe mental health conditions, lung cancer, health inequalities, cancer screening, diagnostic pathway, mixed methods

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Early life multidimensional disadvantage of South Australian children: a whole-population linked data study

Kalamkarian, A.; Pilkington, R. M.; Lynch, J.; Mittinty, M. N.; Malvaso, C.; Hawkins, K.; Pharo, H.; Beck, K.; Chittleborough, C. R.

2026-06-05 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354860 medRxiv
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Background: Whole-population linked administrative data platforms provide an opportunity to generate evidence on early life multidimensional disadvantage to inform resourcing and service provision to families with complex needs. Methods: We used individual-level de-identified data from nine administrative data sources included in the Better Evidence Better Outcomes Linked Data (BEBOLD) platform. The population included all children born in South Australia between 2004-2011 (n=143,083), and their parents. We described the prevalence and distribution of multiple disadvantages affecting children from the 12 months before birth to age 5. Eleven domains of parental disadvantage were created: economic, education, access to services, mental health, substance misuse, smoking during pregnancy, domestic and family violence, health, child protection contact, justice system contact, and death. We investigated the concordance of our measure with an area-level socioeconomic measure used in government reporting. Results: One in two children (48%) were exposed to at least one disadvantage domain, and one in seven (14%) were exposed to three or more domains before age five. Economic disadvantage was most prevalent, affecting one in four (27%) children, of which 75% were exposed to additional forms of disadvantage. Substance misuse, domestic and family violence, and justice system contact were the least likely domains to occur in isolation. Only 54.4% who experienced five or more disadvantage domains were classified in the area-level socioeconomic measure's 'most disadvantaged' quintile. Conclusion: Early life exposure to parental disadvantage can be highly multidimensional. Measurement across different systems is important for informing coordinated service provision for families with complex needs.

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WELL-ED: Wellbeing and Education linkages in school-aged children - A protocol for a population-based register study and survey of adolescents

Kosola, S.; Salonen, S.; Miettinen, J.; Horhammer, I.; Impio, A.-R.; Kumpulainen, S. M.; Sergejeff, J.; Numari, S.; Laitinen-Parkkonen, P.; Tapola-Haapala, M.; Aaltio, E.; Thorn, L.

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355053 medRxiv
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Introduction Education is a core social determinant of health for children and adolescents. Unfortunately, academic achievement, health, and wellbeing of adolescents have decreased in many developed countries in the past decade. The purpose of the Wellbeing and Education linkages in school-aged children (WELL-ED) study is to examine associations of school absences and academic achievement with use of school-based and community-based health and social welfare services. In addition, we will assess user experiences and multi-sector services pathways of school-aged children for a better understanding of how the service system could respond to the needs of children. Methods and analysis WELL-ED is a large population-based study that combines register data on school absences and educational support from municipalities with register data on healthcare and social service use collected from wellbeing services counties in Finland. The study cohort includes all children who attended mandatory education in public schools in Southern Finland in school year 2023-2024. A smaller cohort of adolescents in school year 8 was invited to complete a user experience survey. The primary outcomes of this study are related to equity of service use. Ethics and dissemination The Regional Committee on Medical Research Ethics of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District (2803/2024) has approved the WELL-ED study protocol. For the survey, adolescents in year 8 and parents of adolescents younger than 15 provided informed consent. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, summaries will be sent to participating municipalities and wellbeing services counties and press releases will be written on key findings.

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Universal Periodic Review recommendations and trajectories of maternal health between 2005 and 2023: a longitudinal ecological analysis of 89 countries

Uppal, A.; Thomas, R.; De Pasquale, M.; Sillo, J.; Getahun, H.

2026-06-05 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354800 medRxiv
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Background: The Universal Periodic Review (UPR) is a peer-review mechanism established to hold UN Member States accountable for human rights including the right to health, yet evidence on its impact on health outcomes is limited. We evaluated whether UPR engagement is associated with accelerated improvements in maternal health trajectories. Methods and Findings: We conducted a longitudinal ecological analysis of 89 countries with a baseline maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 70 or greater per 100,000 live births in 2005. Outcomes were trajectories of annual MMR, skilled birth attendance (SBA), and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), from 2005 to 2023. The exposure was the volume of health-related UPR recommendations received across three cycles, thematically classified using a validated rule-based algorithm. Mixed-effects models adjusted for time-varying GDP per capita and historical fragility. The 89 countries received 41,733 UPR recommendations across three cycles, of which 405 (1%) were related to maternal health. Maternal health recommendations were preferentially directed at countries with higher baseline MMR and lower SBA. After adjustment, each additional maternal health recommendation was associated with a 0.24% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08, 0.40] faster annual reduction in MMR, a 0.52% [0.12, 0.91] faster annual gain in the odds of SBA, and a 0.21% [0.09, 0.34] faster annual gain in the odds of CPR. Broader recommendations on women's health and health systems and services were also associated with faster annual improvements in trajectories across all three outcomes; recommendations on abortion, family planning, sexual health and wellbeing, and sexual education tended to be directed towards lower-burden countries and were not associated with differences in any trajectories. It is important to note that the ecological design precludes causal inference. Conclusions: Receiving UPR recommendations on the themes of maternal health, womens health, and health systems and services are associated with accelerated improvements in maternal health trajectories among high-burden countries. These findings suggest that international human rights accountability mechanisms may have a role in supporting national progress on maternal health.

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Epidemiology of Cervical Precancerous Lesions: Prevalence and Predictors from Pap Smear Screening in Hawassa City Hospitals, Sidama Region, Ethiopia. Institutional-Based Cross-sectional Study

Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355254 medRxiv
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Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.

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Limitations of cross-border containment strategies for Bundibugyo ebolavirus

Middleton, C.; Larremore, D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354820 medRxiv
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An ongoing outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was deemed a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026. To prevent cross-border importation, many countries, including the United States, Canada, India, Thailand, and Kenya have already proposed containment strategies, and others are likely to follow suit. How well (or poorly) are screening and quarantine containment measures are likely to work? We leverage established epidemiological theory and develop a mathematical model of traveler screening and post-arrival quarantine for BVD to answer this question. We find that traveler screening via symptom screening or molecular testing will miss the majority of infected travelers, and should be complemented by post-arrival quarantine and monitoring of sufficient duration to detect those with long incubation periods. Our findings underscore the limitations of border screening and the importance of complementary measures like post-arrival quarantine to prevent local importation of BVD.

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Serum Cotinine and Wrist-Worn Ambient Light Exposure Patterns in U.S. Adults: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of NHANES 2011-2014

Wong, A.; Lee, C. W.; Park, A.; Yin, L.; Choi, Y.

2026-06-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354759 medRxiv
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Background. Tobacco smoke exposure, quantified by serum cotinine, is associated with cardiovascular, metabolic, and sleep-related health risks. The relationship between biomarker-verified tobacco smoke exposure and objectively measured, free-living wrist-worn ambient light patterns has not been examined in a nationally representative U.S. adult sample. Methods. We analyzed NHANES 2011-2014 cross-sectional data from 6,937 adults aged >20 years with valid serum cotinine and wrist-worn Physical Activity Monitor (PAM) ambient light data. Seven light outcomes were modeled using survey-weighted linear regression with log2(cotinine+1) as the continuous exposure across four covariate adjustment levels. Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) correction was applied across the 7 outcomes within each model. Results. In Model 2 (adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, poverty-income ratio, BMI, and survey cycle; N = 6,350), higher serum cotinine was associated with significantly higher nighttime light (beta = +0.024, 95% CI: 0.010, 0.038; p-FDR = 0.014) and lower evening light (beta = -0.031, 95% CI: -0.055, -0.008; p-FDR = 0.042). In exploratory behavioral models without alcohol (Model 3a; N = 5,766), both nighttime and evening associations remained FDR-significant. After additional adjustment for alcohol, which substantially reduced the sample due to 37.6% missingness (Model 3b; N = 3,866), the nighttime association attenuated below the FDR threshold, while the evening association remained FDR-significant. Categorical analyses showed progressively higher nighttime light across cotinine groups, and a hypothesis-generating sex interaction was identified (p-interaction = 0.001). Conclusions. Higher serum cotinine concentrations were associated with higher nighttime and lower evening ambient light after sociodemographic adjustment. Attenuation after behavioral adjustment and the cross-sectional design preclude causal inference. Longitudinal studies with formal mediation analyses are needed to clarify the temporal ordering and mechanisms linking tobacco smoke exposure, smoking-related behaviors, and personal light-dark cycle patterns.

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Temporal and climatic drivers of uncomplicated malaria in Ghana: A Region Generalised Additive Model analysis.

Akurugu, E.; Awine, T.; Seidu, B.; Peprah, N. Y.; Mohammed, W.; Boateng, P.; Abiwu, P. H. A. K.; Silal, S. P.

2026-06-09 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355054 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Ghana, despite recent reductions in cases due to various interventions. The endemicity of the disease varies across regions, influenced by diverse seasonal and temporal factors that support mosquito proliferation and malaria cases. This study used a Generalised Additive Models to explore the impact of weather conditions on malaria cases in Ghana. Methods Generalised Additive Models were used to examine the nonlinear effects of weather conditions on malaria cases. Monthly aggregated malaria cases from the District Health Information Management System II and average monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were analysed, covering 2012 to 2023. Regional Generalised Additive Models incorporating weather variables were developed, fitted, and validated against observed data using model diagnostics to identify the most suitable model for each region. Results The analysis revealed complex temporal patterns in malaria cases across Ghana, influenced by seasonal and long-term trends. Regions constituting the Coastal and Transitional Forest zones exhibited bimodal peak malaria seasons, while the Guinea Savannah showed a unimodal peak. Significant interactions between rainfall and temperature were identified, particularly in the Eastern region, where higher rainfall combined with temperatures around 27-28 {degrees}C were associated with higher malaria cases, reflecting the complex and region-specific nature of meteorological influences. Conclusions The findings point to the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of malaria caseloads in Ghana, emphasising the need for region-specific control strategies tailored to local climatic conditions. A key recommendation is the systematic integration of meteorological data into the National Malaria Data Repository to enable continuous monitoring of climatic influences and support timely, evidence-based intervention decisions. Future research should incorporate socio-economic factors, intervention coverage data, vector surveillance, and demographic characteristics into mathematical modelling frameworks for a more comprehensive understanding of malaria cases in Ghana.

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Physical activity, fatty acids, and MASLD risk: Behavioural and metabolic factors jointly shaping liver health in populations

Chen, F.; You, R.; Liu, Y.; Yin, Y.; Liu, A.; Deng, L.; Xie, B.; Fan, J.; Wang, W.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354982 medRxiv
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Background and Aims: MASLD has become the most prevalent chronic liver disease globally. Although MVPA and plasma fatty acids have been individually studied in relation to metabolic health, their independent and combined associations with MASLD incidence remain unclear. We aimed to investigate these associations. Methods: This study included 51,717 UK Biobank participants free of liver disease at baseline, with MVPA measured using wrist-worn accelerometers and plasma fatty acids quantified via NMR. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models and restricted cubic splines were used. Results: Over a median follow-up of 7.8 years, 472 incident cases were identified. In fully adjusted models, meeting recommended MVPA levels together with higher n-6 PUFA concentrations was associated with a 71% lower risk (HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.18-0.45). The MVPA-MASLD association was nonlinear, with risk reduction plateauing at approximately 189 minutes per week. Higher n-6 PUFA was associated with reduced risk, whereas n-3 PUFA showed no significant association. Conclusions: These findings suggest that behavioral and metabolic factors may jointly influence MASLD risk. Further studies in diverse populations are needed to confirm these associations.

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How nurses spend their time: nurses' experiences and time use for providing HIV treatment under conventional and differentiated service delivery models in South Africa

Lekodeba, N. A.; Pascoe, S. J. S.; Huber, A. N.; Ngcobo, N.; Morgan, A. J.; Ntjikelane, V.; Marri, A. R.; Sande, L.; Shumba, K.; Mokhele, I.; Nichols, B. E.; Jamieson, L.; Rosen, S.

2026-06-08 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355033 medRxiv
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Introduction: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models aim to reduce time healthcare providers spend with DSD clients, increasing time available for non-DSD clients. We measured nurses' time allocation and explored their experiences with DSD models in South Africa. Methods: We conducted time and motion observations and surveyed nurses at 24 public primary healthcare facilities across two SENTINEL study rounds (09/2022-07/2023 and 11/2023-07/2024). We report median time nurses spent by activity, model of care, and interaction type. Log binomial regression investigated factors associated with high direct nurse-client interaction (above median minutes) and extended work-days ([&ge;]9 hours), and estimated adjusted risk ratios (aRR). Survey questions were related to client care, additional time availability, and policy changes post DSD implementation, with key themes presented alongside illustrative quotes. Results: 176 nurses (88% female, median age 44) were observed for 344 working days; of these, 60 (34%) participated in the provider survey. Nurses spent a median of 293 minutes (53% of their work-day) on direct nurse-client interaction, 89 minutes (22%) on client-support or facility-related tasks, and the remainder on other activities including personal breaks. Time spent per client was similar across conventional care clients (11 [IQR: 8-15] minutes) but ranged between 9 (7-13) to 11 (8-15) minutes for DSD clients; number of direct nurse-client interactions did not differ meaningfully. Nurses at facilities with 2,000-3,999 total remaining on ART (TROA) (aRR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.02-2.37) and in urban areas (aRR 1.43, [1.08-1.89]) had more direct nurse-client interactions than those at facilities with <1,999 TROA and in rural areas, respectively. Nurses at facilities with 4,000+ TROA (aRR 2.22, [1.36-3.63]) and those observed in SENTINEL 3.0 (aRR 1.53, [1.13-2.07]) were more likely to work standard or longer workdays than those at lower TROA facilities (<1,999), those in SENTINEL 2.0 and urban areas. Nurses reported DSD models improved client care (90%), freed up time (60%), and changed clinic procedures and policies (60%). Conclusions: While DSD models did not significantly reduce direct nurse-client interaction time, nurses reported improved client care and gained additional time. DSD impact may vary by facility context. As DSD implementation expands, effective time reallocation may enhance facility performance and provider productivity.

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Shifting patterns of importation risk of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease to Europe under outbreak expansion scenarios

Fanelli, F.; Parino, F.; Poletto, C.; Colizza, V.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.31.26354511 medRxiv
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The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.